From Scientific American: The Truth about Online Dating

Yesterday, the Scientific American published a controversial report about the lies in our online-dating profiles, eHarmony’s so-called scientific matching and questionable studies, eye-opening statistics, and the future trends (like virtual dating). It’s a must read.

Scientific American: The Truth about Online Dating
By Robert Epstein
The hype is huge, and the findings are somewhat disturbing — but the future of online dating looks good

. . . I have been a researcher for about 30 years and a test designer for nearly half those years. When I see extravagant ads for online tests that promise to find people a soul mate, I find myself asking, “How on earth could such a test exist?”

The truth is, it doesn’t. . . .

Thanks, Tim, for pointing out in the comments that it was written by a consultant employed by another dating site, same as Warren is a consultant employed by eH. Thus I’m crossing this out of the “must read” sort.

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Comments 2

  1. Scott Grey wrote:

    Good article.

    Actually, I followed back some of the references… and found another article that I really liked. It is a promotion for a (future) dating website, but it is written by good scientists, and, I think, exposes the “hype” of Internet “dating” so far.

    I thought that they make great points. I love eHarmony as a social “expander,” but do feel like they’re irresponsibly overselling their service.

    But, that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.

    Posted 02 Feb 2007 at 9:06 am
  2. Timothy Mahar wrote:

    The article is pretty long (5 pages), but full of interesting information.

    I really take issue with the conclusion about eHarmony. They suggest you have a 1 in 500 chance of marrying any particular match. I suspect even eHarmony doesn’t know the real odds. Why? That would depend on self-reporting of the information. Is everyone going to report? I highly doubt it. That is not to say that I don’t think the 1 in 500 is a terrible number, I just question how they came up with it.

    They also state that “eHarmony delivers about 1.5 matches a month”. Less than 2 matches a month? That certainly wasn’t my experience. I could see that low a matching rate in thinly populated area, but I would be surprised if 1.5 matches a month reflects most people’s experience.

    I would certainly agree that if you are only getting 1.5 matches a month, your chances of getting married from an eHarmony match are very low. On the other hand, consider their hypothesis that you have a 1 in 500 chance of marrying a specific eHarmony match. If you sign-up for a year and receive 5 matches a week, by the end of the year you will have had about 250 matches. According to their numbers, that would give you a 50-50 shot at getting married. I think a lot of people would consider the time and money for that well spent.

    Dating is a numbers game. The real question is how many matches is eHarmony going to be able to deliver. If you are a 29 year old woman in a major city, I suspect you will have a lot more than 5 matches a week. If you are a 60 year old man living in a sparsely populated area, I would image you would be lucky to get 2 matches a month.

    Note: If you read the author bio at the end of the article, he is a consultant to Engage.com. Something to consider.

    Posted 03 Feb 2007 at 12:16 am

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