University of California Berkeley students find out UCB students are shallow (a comment on social experiments)

I took Sociology 101 in university and never liked it.

eHarmony Labs (and subsequently the official blog) shared this week the findings of four University of California Berkeley (UCB) psychology majors of their study on the “Relative Importance of Physical Attractiveness on Initial Attractiveness and Dating Online“.

The Labs piece, “A picture in your profile might get you a date, but not a relationship!” reads like a rebuttal to last month’s OKCupid Blog piece on the 4 myths of profile photos that was featured on the New York Times two weeks ago. The Labs piece reads like a half-baked “Hey, here’s proof that good photos don’t matter in a long-term-relationship dating site.”

I reviewed these students’ findings and, funny, I came up with different conclusions:

  • Lab Study 1 and 2: UCB undergraduates are shallow. (sample size = 100)
  • Online Dating Study 1: White 40-year-olds who are interested in casual dating are shallow. (sample size = 150)
  • Online Dating Study 2: White 40-year-olds don’t end relationships because their partner is ugly. (sample size = 150)

What I hate the most about social experiments is the limitation of survey data. I don’t know how they expect an person to do the extrapolation. Publishing psych lab results is stupid because your data will be based only on observing willing participants who are within your limited community. And then, what’s your sample size? You can’t honestly ask me to believe that results from a survey of a hundred people is reliable, unless we’re playing Family Feud or something.

Physicists agree that oil and water don’t mix, but social scientists can never agree on anything as basic. The unrepeatable nature of social studies is the main reason why I favored math and physical sciences.

Social experiments are good as a pastime for psych students and sociology undergrads. It’s only good for impressing professors and consuming study grants.

Furthermore, publishing study results like these is dangerous because there will be idiots (e.g., those who buy and read magazines filled with this crap) who use this information to make life decisions. Who checks for observer bias?

This brings us to ask what eHarmony Labs is for. After all, would findings from observing behaviors of residents from the Los Angeles Area be at all representative of behaviors across North America? No, of course not. eHarmony Labs is only there for show, for smoke and mirrors. eHarmony Labs is there only for public relations.

Exactly like what we’ve always known (and incidentally, what our patented Compatibility Matching Services is based on), a study by Goodman et al found out that eHarmony is the best dating site out there.

(Also, do you expect eHarmony Labs to release the results (data, methodology and conclusions) of any research related to their core business of compatibility matching?)

Do you want to know where the real social experiments are? They are in the “feedback loop” that eHarmony uses through the site. eHarmony does more A/B Testing than anything you can think of. In a given moment, 10% of users could be seeing blue banners on the site, 40-year-old males in the Midwest could be seeing red banners, while childfree ladies could be seeing green banners. They then sit and watch which banners get the most clicks … or which personality profile combinations attract the most subscribers and the most repeat subscribers.

Using massive multi-layered social experiments on its users, eHarmony maximizes its revenues. With this revenue they can pay for these for-show labs and studies. Perfect.

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Comments 2

  1. Fernando Ardenghi wrote:

    In this case I strongly agree with “A picture in your profile might get you a date, but not a relationship!” and the poster “More Than Just a Pretty Face? The Relative Importance of Physical Attractiveness in Initial Attraction and Dating” (it was originally presented at the SPSP 2010 Conference and I had read it in February), which is consistent with other findings like:

    What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy, as stated in the paper
    Klohnen & Luo in 2005
    “ASSORTATIVE MATING AND MARITAL QUALITY IN NEWLYWEDS: A COUPLE CENTERED APPROACH”, February 2005 at “Journal of Personality and Social Psychology”
    “……..People may be attracted to those who have similar attitudes, values, and beliefs and even marry them (at least in part) on the basis of this similarity. However, once individuals are in a committed relationship, IT MAY BE PRIMARILY PERSONALITY SIMILARITY THAT INFLUENCES MARITAL HAPPINESS. ….”

    Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development outlines: compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

    Charania & Ickes (2009)
    paper: “Personality influences on marital satisfaction: Integrating the empirical evidence using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model (APIM) model”

    Rammstedt & Schupp (2008)
    paper: “Only the congruent survive – Personality similarities in couples. Personality and Individual Differences”

    Barelds & Dijkstra (2008)
    paper: “Do People Know What They Want: A Similar or Complementary Partner?”

    McCrae, Martin, Hrebícková, Urbánek, Boomsma et al. (2008)
    paper: “Personality Trait Similarity Between Spouses in Four Cultures”

    and many more.

    —————-

    OKCupid is a site for fun, for entertainment purposes, for flirting, for instant gratification, mostly for persons up to 25 years old, not serious daters.

    eHarmony is intended for serious daters, but it is an obsolete 10 years old site.
    eHarmony’s Compatibility Matching Algorithm is solely based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core, something anybody can calculate with a 1984 model Commodore 64 or ZX Spectrum home computer.

    eHarmony Labs is only a smoke curtain.

    The success rate* of eHarmony is less than 10%**.
    *success rate == percentage of persons who leave the site because they found someone compatible.
    **estimated by Fernando Ardenghi using reverse engineering.

    The majority, over 90% of its members are not going to achieve a long term relationship with commitment (or marriage) using eHarmony.

    —————–

    The Worldwide 2009 annual revenue for eHarmony was estimated in USD 250 millions
    [and checking traffic from its 4 different sites, I estimate 20% from Canada, 50% from U.S.A., 25% from U.K. and 5% from Australia]

    If you consider 10% of that revenue by ads, it is only USD 225 millions by subscriptions
    At a USD 40 (Monthly Average Revenue per Subscriber: MARS)

    USD 225 millions / USD 480 (Annual Average Revenue per Subscriber) == 468,750 paid Subscribers

    Perhaps eHarmony has only
    93,750 paid members from Canada
    234,376 paid members from U.S.A.
    117,187 paid members from U.K.
    23,437 paid members from Australia

    Regards,

    Fernando Ardenghi.
    Buenos Aires.
    Argentina.
    ardenghifer@gmail.com

    Posted 01 Mar 2010 at 4:41 pm
  2. sf wrote:

    What I like about OkCupid is the use of ‘ranged’ questions as a statistical match of match, friend, enemy.

    I have a problem of calling it “personality”. I believe that the underlying character is what keeps a relationship working, albeit it manifests itself in the personality.

    Posted 02 Mar 2010 at 12:27 pm

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