Marginally, 30%-40% of new subscribers find a spouse in eHarmony

(Exactly one month ago, right here, I asked Suzanne Nagel, Sr. Director of Marketing of eHarmony (bio) (suzannenagel@eharmony.com), who revealed in a magazine article that eHarmony’s subscriber conversion rate for 2004 is 24%, to share with us the figure for 2007. I’m not surprised at all that she ignored our inquiry. For this post, I will use information from their June 2008 advertiser kit.)

In 2007, of 100 of those who visit eHarmony, 5 actually subscribe. Of 100 of those who subscribe, 30-40 find marital partners in the service.

I came up with this figure based on statistics available in 2007.

  • 238 members marry per day.1
  • eHarmony had a 5% conversion rate. 2
  • 11 to 16 thousand members joined every day.3

I then calculate “marriages per new subscription per day”; using the above information, it’s 238 per (5% of 11K-16K) per day = 30% to 43% per day.

This is like saying 11-16K people applied to Princeton this semester, but only 550-800 were accepted this semester, while at the same time only 238 graduated. The ratio of graduates vs. enrollees this semester is 30-43 is to 100.

So, therefore, marginally, 30-43% of those who pay up find their marriage partner in the service. Wow.

(Disagreeing with this figure? It isn’t jiving with personal experience? Please contact eHarmony (626) 795-4814 and ask for their 2007 conversion rate.)

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    Comments 6

    1. Markus Frind wrote:

      Your numbers are completely wrong… 1 in 20 site visitors refers to visitors not registered members. Eharmony has a 23% conversion to paid from free members, that was the last number given at the dating conference a few years ago by comscore. Even match.com has a 15% conversion rate and if your conversion rate is under 10% you can’t stay in business.

      look at it another way, Eharmony claims over 200M in revenues in 2007, if there are 800 paying people per day that means 200M / (800*365) = $685 in revenue per paid member.

      The survey they commissioned is full of holes to…

      Posted 10 Aug 2008 at 11:09 pm
    2. eHarmony Blog wrote:

      As I suspected.

      Okay guys, let’s look at that 200M revenue further in five scenarios then:

      * At a 20% conversion rate, revenue per subscriber (200M/365/20% of 11-16K) is $165 to $252, and the marginal success rate (238/(20% of 11-16K)) is 7.2 to 11%.

      * At a 30% conversion rate, revenue per subscriber is $110 to $167, and the marginal success rate is 4.7 to 7.3%.

      * At a 40% conversion rate, revenue per subscriber is $83 to $126, and the marginal success rate is 3.6 to 5.5%.

      * At a 50% conversion rate, revenue per subscriber is $66 to $100, and the marginal success rate is 2.9 to 4.4%.

      * At a 60% conversion rate, revenue per subscriber is $55 to $84, and the marginal success rate is 2.4 to 3.6%.

      From these figures, my most likely guess is 45%, giving a marginal success rate of 3 to 5%. In other words, almost HALF of one’s matches will (eventually) be subscribers, but only 1 out of 20 to 33 subscribers will find a spouse.

      Hey, eHarmony pays affiliates $55-$75 for each sale. This is very lucrative, eh?

      What do you doubt about the Harris survey, Mr. Frind? I know they questionably hide its details and methodology. What about it?

      Posted 11 Aug 2008 at 7:23 am
    3. Markus Frind wrote:

      I suspect they are counting common law marriages as marriages or whatever its called in the US. They are also extrapolating how many people will get married, as it normally takes 6 years for matches to get married. (http://www.onlinepersonalswatch.com/news/2006/09/social_networks.html) Eharmony hasn’t even been around that long.

      30% of your users are going to resubscribe at some point, so the 11-16k figure will include that number.

      30% of people are going to give up.
      30% of people will find someone somewhere else, either on other sites or somewhere else.
      20-40% will find a relationship on your site, maybe…

      Whats the relationship to marriage number?

      Posted 11 Aug 2008 at 8:22 am
    4. Sam Moorcroft wrote:

      Marcus, you have some of your facts wrong, e.g.

      “if your conversion rate is under 10% you can’t stay in business.”

      Very few dating services have a conversion rate from trial to paid of *over* 10%. The average is more like 3-5% – and they survive.

      Also, you stated, “They are also extrapolating how many people will get married, as it normally takes 6 years for matches to get married.”

      Excuse me? 6 years to get married?;-)

      The actual quote on http://www.onlinepersonalswatch.com/news/2006/09/social_networks.html says,

      “…the median time a marriage lasts is 6 years.”

      I am not sure where Siminoff got those stats from. I’d love to see from where:)

      Posted 12 Aug 2008 at 7:04 pm
    5. eHarmony Blog wrote:

      Siminoff is merely guesstimating, then MarketWatch is passing it off as news.

      Since the conversion ratio (23%) doesn’t match actual experience (lifetime value of customer = $130-$200 AND 23% of one’s matches act upon it (view/close/communicate)), then I probably shoulda change this post’s title to “Where on earth is eHarmony getting all its money?”

      How much will 388 million monthly pageviews (376 mil in USA, Quantcast July 2008) worth of banner advertising (2 spots per page) get you?

      Posted 14 Aug 2008 at 7:49 am
    6. Jon wrote:

      238 members of eHarmony get married each day. 11k-16k new members join each day. The success rate is between 1.48%-2.16%.

      Bottom line: eHarmony is the procuring cause of 119 marriages each day.

      Posted 24 Apr 2009 at 12:19 am

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